Stochastic Demand Model for Parcel Logistics Companies

Resumen

One of the factors that most considerably influences a Parcel Logistics Company (hereby referred to as PLC) is the randomness of the goods its’ clients entrust it for distribution. This randomness considerably complicates any decision making related to the goods received by a PLC client. This article will focus on two aspects that are affected by the uncertainty of the goods received from a client, and will be analysed. These are: the revenue of a PLC and, the delivery and collection costs. To reduce the risk associated with decision making, the variables that affect the revenue and the delivery and collection costs will be fitted by probability distribution functions and how to create a stochastic model with these probability distribution functions will be studied and analysed. The three variables that significantly affect the nature of the goods given by a client to a PLC for its transportation and distribution are the number of shipments per day., the weight of each shipment, and finally, the distance to the delivery point of each shipment. The uncertainty of these variables has a critical impact on the revenue and the delivery and collection costs of a PLC.